Decision Desk TSR
Decision Desk TSR was founded during the November 2025 Class 2 Mod Election by Reddit user PickleArtGeek to "call mod elections and props." Our team consists of the most renowned number experts TSR has to offer.
The Team
BaseCalc & ProbCalc
Decision Desk TSR's own composite tools — these pool every pollster tracking a race (Spinner Insights included, alongside EggPolls, campaign-run polls, etc.) into one weighted average and a Monte Carlo win-probability model. This is DDTSR's aggregation work, separate from any single pollster's own releases — see Spinner Insights Polls for SI's individual poll releases.
Candidates running as a declared write-in (flagged per-election, e.g. Class 7 July's MaxFlares) get a 45% methodology discount applied to their polled share before entering the average/chart/ProbCalc below — write-in support is well known to poll hotter than it performs at the actual ballot. Marked with ✎ in the average row. Raw poll numbers in the table are left untouched.
Rolling 3-Day Average — All Pollsters
Candidates absent from the most recent poll are treated as having dropped out (or not yet declared) and excluded from the current average/bars/ProbCalc below — their earlier polling still shows on this trend line up to the point they stopped being tracked.
Running 20,000 simulations…
How we call races
Two ways a call goes up
Every race Decision Desk TSR calls is marked with the method used, visible on TSR Elects:
- Outright — a candidate has secured a majority (or, under FPTP, an insurmountable plurality) and no further tabulation can change the outcome.
- Auto-runoff (RCV) — under ranked-choice contests, once first-choice totals are final we simulate the instant-runoff elimination order to project a winner before every round is manually re-tabulated.