Pollster Ratings

Each poll is compared with the first-round result among the candidates it polled (or the runoff result for a head-to-head poll, when one exists). A poll scores out of 100: 70% for how close its shares were to the result (average miss in points, 25 points off or worse scores zero) and 30% for naming the right leader.

A pollster's grade is the weighted average of its poll scores — polls released closer to election day count more, and older polls fade with a one-year half-life — pulled toward a C+ with the weight of two imaginary polls, so one lucky or unlucky poll cannot decide a grade. Pollsters with fewer than three graded polls are marked provisional. Polls for races with no logged result yet are listed but not graded.

Variants of one outlet (e.g. “self-poll” or “H2H” editions) count together.